At 8:31 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, June 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published a single line of data that unwound weeks of silver's momentum: 172,000 nonfarm payrolls added in May, against a consensus estimate of 148,000.
Within 45 minutes of the report's release, silver had dropped from $70.28 to $66.50 per troy ounce — a 5.4% decline in under an hour. By the time US markets closed, silver had shed more than 6% on the session. The total market capitalisation erasure across silver futures and ETFs exceeded $6 billion.
The mechanism was straightforward: strong employment data removes the economic justification for Federal Reserve rate cuts and amplifies the case for further tightening. Precious metals, which generate no yield, suffer disproportionately in high-rate environments because the opportunity cost of holding them rises with every Treasury yield increase. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 14 basis points on the day to 4.87%, its highest since November 2025.
The Structural Bull Case Survives
Despite the violent macro repricing, analysts at several investment banks were quick to note that the jobs report changes the monetary policy outlook but does nothing to alter silver's structural demand narrative.
- Solar demand remains on track for a record 240 million troy ounces consumed in 2026, driven by continued photovoltaic capacity additions in China, the US, and India.
- EV battery technology is incorporating more silver per vehicle as solid-state battery development progresses.
- COMEX warehouse inventories have declined 12% over the prior 30 days, pointing to ongoing industrial drawdowns.
The key question for investors: does the June 6 selloff represent a buying opportunity in a longer-term bull market temporarily disrupted by macro headwinds, or the beginning of a sustained bear leg? Historical precedent — most notably the September 2022 and March 2023 rate-hike-driven corrections — suggests silver tends to recover sharply once the Fed's terminal rate becomes clear.